Just look at the stats: 11

Just look at the stats: 11.6 strikeout rate per nine innings, 2.7 walk rate per nine innings, 4.33 BB/K ratio, 2.20 FIP Those are the numbers of a really good starting pitcher. Yet there are a two stats that worry me: 1.28 WHIP and 129 hits allowed in 131 innings. Those aren’t exactly the numbers of a pitcher who is dominating, especially at Single-A.What does that mean? Surkamp is either striking guys out or he’s giving up hits. His BABIP shows that (he had a .380 BABIP last season, exceptionally high).That’s fine if he’s got incredible stuff, but other than a wicked curve, Surkamp doesn’t sport “strikeout artist” velocity. His fastball runs in the mid 80’s to high 80’s (at best) range.Those aren’t exactly comforting qualities in a pitcher, especially when he’s very low in the Minor League system at this point So, Surkamp dominated in Augusta in 2009.

But can he do it again? He could.His high strikeout rate in his first three levels of professional ball illustrates that he has a good understanding when it comes to getting guys out, and you could imagine him keeping that ability as he progresses into Advanced Single-A or Double-A next year. Then again, it would not be surprising at all to see Surkamp get shellacked in Advanced Single-A or Double-A next year. That’s the kind of risk Surkamp presents as a player.He’ll either continue to improve and continue to strike guys out despite “okay” stuff, or he’ll get tattooed and won’t be the same a la Pat Misch or Lowry post-2005.He didn’t exactly set the world on fire at NC State (he posted a 1.57 WHIP is last year at NC State, not exactly great), so it’s totally plausible that he could come crashing down to earth once he faces better competition. Aaron King, LHP (20 years old, Seventh Round Pick of the 2008 MLB Draft from Surry Community College) Why You Should Know About King: King can bring it Plain and simple. He throws in the low to mid-90’s (up to 95 MPH, or at least that’s the “legend,” according to the McCovey Chronicles) and he can strike guys out.In 31.2 innings pitched in Rookie League Arizona, King posted an 11.65 strikeout rate per nine innings (he also made six starts in rookie ball).Last season, his strikeout rate dipped to 7.57, but considering that he started all 22 games he pitched in and logged in 104.2 innings pitched in Augusta, the strikeout rate isn’t all that bad (though it certainly is discouraging). Another aspects in King’s favor is that he isn’t exactly easy to hit, especially in comparison to Surkamp. While Surkamp posted a better strikeout rate, King allowed less hits in comparison to innings pitched than Surkamp (he allowed 14 less hits than innings pitched while Surkamp only allowed two less), and that is comforting.Then again, King benefited from a better BABIP than Surkamp last year (.281 in comparison to Surkamp’s .380 BABIP), but if anything, last year, King showed that hitters aren’t going to find gaps as easily as they did with Surkamp.

That being said, the kid is far from polished.  At this point, he sort of resembles a less-refined Alex Hinshaw (whether that’s good or bad, I’ll leave that you to judge; In my opinion, it’s not bad).Granted, he’s only 20 years old, and with the kind of stuff and strikeout potential he possesses, King could be a very good pitcher with the right tutelage and if he finds the right role. And you know what? Both those things could happen as early as next year. The Giants organization has a good reputation of finding and developing pitchers (as evidenced by Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Brian Wilson, Madison Bumgarner, Jonathan Sanchez, etc.).Additionally, King may be better suited in the bullpen than in the starting rotation. With less innings pitched and opponents only seeing him once in a game rather than two or three times, it would not be surprising to see his strikeout rates increase should he make a move to the pen. Why You Should Be Cautious About King:  There’s already a reputation around the Web concerning King’s mechanics Apparently, they’re really, really, BAD. In this day and age of Kerry Woods and Mark Priors (both former Cubs!), you can’t afford to take chances and spend money on guys with arm problem potential.It killed Chicago financially and they in some ways never really recovered from it. Now, nobody is comparing King to Wood or Prior (they all had way more hype), but arm problem potential is still arm problem potential. Will King have a future of injuries and extended time on the disabled list? Maybe, maybe not.

I’m not God, so I can’t say.However, it’s a huge red flag for his future, and it definitely keeps the expectations for him lower than they probably should be Furthermore, King’s control is also a concern. The knock on him already is that he is very, very, VERY wild. Last year, he sported a 4.5 walk rate, but that isn’t even the worst part King also plunked 10 batters and threw 12 wild pitches. Those are the kinds of numbers that only Nuke LaLoosh and Ricky Vaughn would be proud of. Now, is wildness an automatic career killer? No, but it certainly doesn’t help.

Just look at the stories of pitchers who never lived up to expectations because they couldn’t throw the ball for strikes. Daniel Cabrera is the poster boy for “guys who have great stuff but can’t throw a strike to save his life.”Hinshaw went through the same control, command problems in 2009 and it may have shot him in the foot in terms of keeping his spot on the 40-man roster this season (especially with Guillermo Mota and Santiago Casilla signed to minor league contracts this off-season) Is that going to happen to King? Like I said, I don’t know. At 20 years old, he still has room to improve, especially with good coaching.However, the history of guyssucceeding with control problems isn’t good. The history of guyssucceeding with mechanics issues isn’t good.